Transcriber's Note:

Apparent typographical errors have been corrected.

The corrections noted in the Errata section have been incorporated in thetext. Three further corrections have also been made:9/10 in place of 1/10, and 9/10 in place of 6/10, on page 110;and "ex voto" in place of "ex veto" on page 173.

A PHILOSOPHICAL ESSAY
ON
PROBABILITIES.

BY
PIERRE SIMON, Marquis de LAPLACE.

TRANSLATED FROM THE SIXTH FRENCH EDITION
BY

FREDERICK WILSON TRUSCOTT, Ph.D. (Harv.),
Professor of Germanic Languages in the West Virginia University,

AND

FREDERICK LINCOLN EMORY, M.E. (Wor. Poly. Inst.),
Professor of Mechanics and Applied Mathematics in the West Virginia
University; Mem. Amer. Soc. Mech. Eng.

FIRST EDITION.
FIRST THOUSAND.

NEW YORK:
JOHN WILEY & SONS.
London: CHAPMAN & HALL, Limited.
1902.

Copyright, 1902,
BY
F. W. TRUSCOTT
AND
F. L. EMORY.

ROBERT DRUMMOND PRINTER, NEW YORK


TABLE OF CONTENTS.

PAGE
PART I.
A PHILOSOPHICAL ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES.
CHAPTER I.
Introduction1
CHAPTER II.
Concerning Probability3
CHAPTER III.
General Principles of the Calculus of Probabilities11
CHAPTER IV.
Concerning Hope20
CHAPTER V.
Analytical Methods of the Calculus of Probabilities26
PART II.
APPLICATION OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES.
CHAPTER VI.
Games of Chance53
CHAPTER VII.
Concerning the Unknown Inequalities which may Exist among Chances Supposed to be Equal56
CHAPTER VIII.
Concerning the Laws of Probability which result from the Indefinite Multiplication of Events60
CHAPTER IX.
Application of the Calculus of Probabilities to
...

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